PROTIDE
Probabilistic Tidal Window Determination

Restart calculation on probability violation

Created by on 2010-12-30 11:15
Last modified on 2011-12-07 16:33
The actual chance of touching the channel bottom is compared to the Maximum route bottom touch probability setting. When the actual chance is higher PROTIDE automatically restarts the calculation with the Maximum route bottom touch probability as the maximum chance per segment in the time / location diagram.

Maximum route segment bottom touch probability

The time / location diagram initially is created with the Maximum route segment bottom touch probability as cut-off value. This setting is higher then the actual maximum route bottom touch probability (the individual criterion). The idea is that you can temporarily violate the individual criterion, but on average a root should be safe. This is modeled by first trying a higher chance and finally testing on the average.

Check the maximum route bottom touch probability

One of the route statistics is the actual chance of touching the channel bottom for the whole voyage. This chance can be compared to the Maximum route bottom touch probability setting. When the actual chance is higher and therefore violates the criterion we restart the calculation. To ensure that we will find a safe route in this second attempt, we use the strict Maximum route bottom touch probability to create the safe time segments in the time / location diagram.

The illustration below shows a possible calculation result where the actual probability per segment (green) is lower then the used criterion per segment (yellow), but on average it violates the probability per route (red). In this case a second calculation is needed where the probability per route (red) is used as the maximum per segment. The result will be that the full green line with all its variation (and therefore on average too) will lay below the red line.

Probability per segment versus per route.png